Why Marcus Morris will get redemption for the Clippers, other best bets for Tuesday

I feel bad for NHL commissioner Gary Bettman. Monday night’s sports calendar saw a limited slate of action without an NBA game and a small MLB slate. The College World Series was going on, but the biggest game on the sports slate last night was Game Five of the playoff series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders.

I like hockey, and I follow the NHL, especially when the Blackhawks don’t stink out loud. But I’m a casual observer, and overall the sport falls on the lower end of my pecking order. But without much else going on last night, I decided I would watch the lone playoff game taking place.

Unfortunately, on a night when the NHL had the spotlight to itself and could attract some of those casual eyeballs, the game was an absolute dud. The Lightning took a 1-0 lead 45 seconds into the game and were up 3-0 before the end of the first period. The score would finish at 8-0 Lightning, though I stopped watching after the first period ended. I’d bet most casual observers did the same.

Of course, with the NBA‘s Western Conference Finals returning tonight and a full slate of MLB, I’m sure tonight’s NHL game between the Golden Knights and Canadiens will be one for the ages, but few will be watching.

So, do me a favor. If the NHL game is awesome, let me know on Twitter. Hockey fans are never shy about telling you that you should be watching their sport, and tonight I encourage them to do so. But only if the game is good.

And now let’s bet on games that aren’t the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

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🔥 The Hot Ticket

Clippers at Suns, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Marcus Morris Over 11.5 points (-115): Typically, when betting on role players in the NBA playoffs, I look for reasons to go over on those at home and under for those on the road. Tonight, I’m mixing things up slightly while sticking to another core tenet of how I bet player props with role players.

Yes, Marcus Morris is on the road tonight, and he’s been better at home (he averages three more points, rebounds and assists combined per game at home despite the same usage rate) for the Clippers this season, but he’s also coming off an awful performance in the first game. Morris finished with only six points after shooting 3-for-11 from the field and 0-for-5 from three. It’s difficult to imagine he plays as poorly again tonight, and even a couple more shots falling would make a significant difference in getting us over this total.

It doesn’t hurt that Morris played well against Phoenix during the regular season, averaging 12 points per game and shooting 45.5% from three in two games. He’s also averaged 12.2 points per game on the road this season, and with Kawhi Leonard out again, he’s going to see more shots come his way than he would if Kawhi were playing.

Key Trend: Marcus Morris averaged 12.2 points per game on the road this season.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: There are a couple of different plays on offer tonight. The Advanced Computer Model is leaning pretty heavily toward one side of the total, while SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has a play on the spread.

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💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB

Indians at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) — Hey, it worked pretty well last night, so why not go back to the well? This situation is slightly different, though. We took the under in this game last night because the weather strongly dictated it was the correct play, and as we saw in a 4-0 Cleveland win, Mother Nature brought her A-game. Tonight her impact won’t be quite as forceful, but the conditions point to a lower-scoring affair. Wrigley Field always plays larger in the evening, and temperatures will barely crack the low-70s, giving this game more of a late-May feel than late-June.

We’re also relying on Kyle Hendricks doing the stuff he typically does at home. Hendricks got off to a rough start this season, posting an ERA of 6.23 in 34.2 innings over his first seven starts, but he’s bounced back. Not only does he have an ERA of 2.54 over his last seven starts, but he’s lasted at least six innings in each of them. Hendricks going deep into a game, with the Cubs bullpen behind him, leads to lower scoring games. Of course, you might be wondering why I’m not just telling you to take the Cubs, and the answer is simple. I’m not against the Cubs money line here, but there’s far more value on the total.

Key Trend: The under is 24-11-3 in the Cubs last 38 games as home favorites.

Brewers at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Diamondbacks (+135) — The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the worst teams in baseball, so let’s bet on them! For real, I know it’s not an exciting prospect, but with Arizona being as awful as it has been, it’s pretty easy to find value on them as the market tends to overreact, and I think that’s the case with the price on Arizona tonight.

A reason the Brewers are so heavily favored is that Freddy Peralta is starting for them, and he’s been phenomenal. He has an ERA of 2.28 and a strikeout rate of 35.9%, with a swinging strike rate of 14.8%. These are all great numbers. He’s also limited hard contact and home runs, but he does have a flaw. His walk rate sits at an even 10%, and pitchers who walk too many hitters can sometimes get themselves in trouble. That hasn’t happened yet this season. Peralta has a left-on-base rate of 84.2% on the season. For some context, Peralta’s career LOB% is 70.2%, and the MLB average is 72.1%. That’s got to normalize at some point. At the price we’re getting on Arizona, it’s worth a shot on some of that regression beginning tonight.

Key Trend: The Brewers are only 1-6 in their last seven games as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Want a little side sweat while watching the Western Conference Finals? The Advanced Computer Model has an A-graded money line play in tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants.

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💸 The DFS Rundown

Top Three Starters

• Max Scherzer, Nationals
• Gerrit Cole, Yankees
• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Value Starter

• Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox

Today’s Top Stack

• Michael Brantley, Astros
• Yuli Gurriel, Astros
• Yordan Alvarez, Astros

Value Hitter

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 ⚾ MLB Chalk Parlay

Let’s take two of the league’s better teams to beat two of the league’s worst teams, shall we? This parlay pays +153.

• Astros (-180)
• White Sox (-160)