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Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks welcome the Milwaukee Bucks to State Farm Arena on Sunday evening. The Hawks and Bucks are knotted at 1-1 in the Eastern Conference finals, with the scene shifting to Atlanta for Game 3. Milwaukee thrashed Atlanta by a 34-point margin in Game 2 after losing the opener at home. Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) is listed as questionable for Atlanta, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) listed as probable for Milwaukee.
Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bucks as 4.5-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 224 in the latest Bucks vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any Hawks vs. Bucks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Hawks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Hawks vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Hawks spread: Bucks -4.5
- Bucks vs. Hawks over-under: 224 points
- Bucks vs. Hawks money line: Bucks -185, Hawks +165
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- ATL: The Hawks are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee’s defense is suffocating at its best. The Bucks have the No. 1 defensive rating during the 2021 NBA Playoffs, giving up 102.8 points per 100 possessions, and that is even more impressive when factoring in the potency of their opponents. Milwaukee leads the postseason in defensive rebound rate (78.3 percent), free throw rate and points allowed in the paint (38.8 per game), with the Bucks also generating a whopping 10.0 steals per game so far against Atlanta. Mike Budenholzer’s team forced 20 turnovers in Game 2, leading directly to 25 points, and that was a big reason that Milwaukee was able to build a 41-point lead in its lopsided win.
Beyond the defense, the Bucks can ride Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday offensively. Holiday is carving up Atlanta’s guards to the tune of 27.5 points and 8.5 assists per game in the first two contests. The Bucks are also swinging the momentum by producing 20.0 second-chance points per game in the series, and they are securing almost 30 percent of available offensive rebounds throughout the postseason.
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta flopped in Game 2 but that was an instance of everything going wrong. The Hawks have performed at an elite level for more than three months, and they have one of the most valuable players in the playoffs in Young. Young led a top-10 offense in the NBA during the regular season, with the Hawks scoring more than 1.14 points per possession, and the electric guard is averaging 29.4 points and 9.9 assists per game in the postseason. Beyond their offensive talent with Young, Kevin Huerter, John Collins and others, the Hawks are performing quite well on the defensive end in the postseason.
Opponents are scoring only 109.1 points per 100 possessions against Atlanta in the playoffs, a notable uptick in resistance when compared to the regular season. That includes an encouraging mark in effective field goal shooting allowed (51.7 percent), and the Hawks have been excellent in keeping the Bucks away from the free throw line in the series. Atlanta was also the No. 3 team in the NBA in limiting opponent 3-point shooting (34.9 percent) during the regular season, and that matches up well with a Bucks team that relies on shot-making from beyond the arc.
How to make Hawks vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
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