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The next few months could be tough for energy stocks.
With OPEC+ postponing negotiations indefinitely on Monday after failing to strike a deal on oil production, oil prices are already under pressure, falling more than 2% on Tuesday after grazing six-year highs.
Another macroeconomic force could “suggest there’s some vulnerability in terms of the near-term trading,” Ari Wald, Oppenheimer’s head of technical analysis, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday.
“Specifically, we’re watching the U.S. dollar,” said Wald, whose firm is market-weighted in the energy sector.
The dollar wasn’t nearly as strong when the energy sector peaked in early June, he noted.
“This dollar strength has moderated and put downward pressure on inflation expectations,” Wald said. “This has pressured value-related inflationary trades like energy and in turn given investors the green light to get back into growth stocks.”
“For now, that dollar strength is causing this near-term disruption, but we do side with this idea that more moderate pricing pressure should help elongate the longer-term equity cycle, and with that we do think there’s more of an intermediate-term floor for energy over that period,” he said.
Another trader saw more short-term upside for the energy trade.
Recent buyers and current holders of oil and oil-related investments “want to probably stay in those positions over the short term” with global output staying at its current levels, New Street Advisors Group founder and CEO Delano Saporu said in the same “Trading Nation” interview.
“Short term, you have some room to run here,” he said.
Over the longer term, Saporu said, he expects consumption to wane, particularly in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.
“From a long-term portfolio standpoint, you probably want to look at trimming some of your positions over the long term as we move towards different areas and alternative uses,” he said.
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