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Home » 2021 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Hawks odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from computer model on 100-66 roll

2021 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Hawks odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from computer model on 100-66 roll

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The Milwaukee Bucks visit State Farm Arena for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday evening. The Bucks, leading 2-1 in the series, aim to take control of the series against the Atlanta Hawks with a third straight win. In contrast, Atlanta looks to avoid an ugly 3-1 hole in front of its home fans. Trae Young (foot) is listed as questionable for the Hawks but told reporters he plans to play, with Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) listed as probable. Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is probable for the Bucks.

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a seven-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219 in the latest Bucks vs. Hawks odds. Before making Hawks vs. Bucks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Hawks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Hawks vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Hawks spread: Bucks -7
  • Bucks vs. Hawks over-under: 219 points
  • Bucks vs. Hawks money line: Bucks -270, Hawks +230
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • ATL: The Hawks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s defense is elite by any description, which helps the Bucks immensely against Atlanta. The Bucks lead the NBA Playoffs 2021 in defensive efficiency, giving up just 103.2 points per 100 possessions to their opponents. Milwaukee has been stifling against Atlanta overall and, for the playoffs, Mike Budenholzer’s team leads the league in defensive rebound rate (78.1 percent) and free throw rate allowed (0.192). The Bucks are also near the top of the sport in shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation rate, with Milwaukee forcing Atlanta to turn the ball over on 15.3 percent of their possessions in the series. 

Milwaukee also specializes on the margins, with the Bucks allowing just 38.4 points in the paint per game and 7.9 fast-break points per game in the playoffs, both of which are elite figures. The Bucks have also been effective offensively, even while shooting just 32 percent from 3-point range against the Hawks. Khris Middleton was the Game 3 hero with 38 points, but Milwaukee has myriad ways to score, and the Bucks are putting up more than 1.18 points per possession against a feisty Atlanta defense through three games. 

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks are playing some of their best defense of the 2020-21 season in the playoffs. Atlanta is allowing fewer than 1.1 points per possession, a sharp improvement from the 72-game regular season. In addition, the Hawks are holding the Bucks to just 32 percent shooting from 3-point range, and that comes after Atlanta was a top-three team in the NBA in 3-point prevention (34.9 percent) during the regular season. Nate McMillan’s club has been excellent at keeping the Bucks away from the free-throw line, allowing a 0.178 free-throw rate, and they were above-average in limiting free-throw attempts throughout the campaign. 

Offensively, it’s been more challenging for the Hawks, but this was a top-10 offense during the regular season, and they are limiting turnovers to just 12.7 percent of their offensive possessions in the series. Atlanta also has room to grow in its 3-point shooting after making 37.3 percent of its triples in 2020-21, and positive regression is in the offing for Bogdanovic, who is shooting 29.6 percent from three in the playoffs after making more than 43 percent of his attempts this season.

How to make Hawks vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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