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The 2021 Eastern Conference finals continue with a pivotal Game 5 matchup on Thursday evening. The Milwaukee Bucks host the Atlanta Hawks, with the series tied at 2-2. Atlanta bounced back with a 22-point home win in Tuesday’s Game 4, putting the pressure back on Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is listed as doubtful for the Bucks, with Trae Young (foot) and Clint Capela (eye) listed as questionable for the Hawks.
Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bucks as two-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Hawks vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Hawks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in its Hawks vs. Bucks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks:
- Hawks vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -2
- Hawks vs. Bucks over-under: 215.5 points
- Hawks vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -130, Hawks +110
- ATL: The Hawks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta’s defense has been stellar in the playoffs, and that was particularly notable in its Game 4 win at home. The Hawks are holding their opponents to just 1.09 points per possession across three series, and they held the Bucks to less than a point per possession on Tuesday. Atlanta’s front-line defenders, including John Collins, Onyeka Okongwu and Capela, have the size to deter Milwaukee, and the Bucks have struggled on the perimeter. The Bucks are shooting just 30.6 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs, and they were just 8-of-39 from beyond the arc in Game 4. Atlanta was a top-five team in preventing 3-point accuracy (34.9 percent) during the regular season and that is a known strength of its approach.
Offensively, the Hawks have been up and down in the series, but they were excellent in Game 4 behind the creation of Lou Williams in place of Young. Atlanta was a top-five team in the NBA in both free creation (24.2 attempts per game) and accuracy (81.2 percent) during the regular season, and that could provide an avenue, particularly if the Bucks elect to go small with their rotation.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee has been the better statistical team during the series, out-scoring Atlanta by 5.1 points per 100 possessions. Much of that stems from their defense but, even with concerns over Antetokounmpo’s injury, the Bucks do have stars to carry the day. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are both high-profile perimeter players, with Middleton dominating to the tune of 38 points in Game 3. Middleton is putting up 21.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game in the series, with Holiday adding 20.0 points and 9.5 assists in his own right.
As a team, the Bucks are generating 2.0 assists for every turnover against the Hawks, a strong ratio, and their perimeter shooting projects to improve when comparing their series totals to their full-season work. Finally, Milwaukee has dominated the offensive glass in the series, leading to efficient points. The Bucks are averaging 18.8 second-chance points per game against the Hawks and, on the whole, they are securing nearly 33 percent of the rebounds after their own missed shots through four games.
How to make Bucks vs. Hawks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Hawks vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
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