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The Action Network’s Matt Moore posted some very interesting Second Spectrum stats on Twitter Saturday that support what the raw numbers and eye test have suggested about the Eastern Conference finals all along. Milwaukee had the second-highest quantified shot quality of any team in any postseason game in Game 1 against the Hawks, and came in 13th in Game 2, but remember, that game was over by halftime.
For the series as a whole, the Bucks have the highest QSQ of any team in any playoff series this season. The Hawks rank 26th out of 28. In other words, the Bucks are getting great shots and the Hawks are not. Virtually any measure of shot quality will say the same thing. The Bucks have taken 66 shots in the restricted area. The Hawks have taken 30. The Hawks have taken 22 mid-range jumpers. The Bucks have taken eight.
The series may be tied 1-1, but the Bucks have dominated the series in all aspects except shooting. They are the better team here. Now, onto today’s best bets.
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Latest Odds:
Milwaukee Bucks
-4.5
Remember, the Hawks lost two home games against the 76ers. State Farm Arena hasn’t proven to provide an especially valuable home-court advantage. Yes, the Hawks have some positive shooting regression coming after hitting only 25 percent of their 3-pointers in the first two games, but the gap between these teams is so big that anything short of a team-wide hot streak isn’t going to close this gap. Take the Bucks until the Hawks prove they can close the gap in terms of shot quality. The pick: Bucks -4
Just keep taking these unders until Vegas adjusts. Bogdan Bogdanovic has played three games since hurting his knee in Game 6 vs. the Sixers. He’s scored four, four and then eight points in those games, but more distressingly, he’s attempted only 20 shots total in that span. He’s not close to healthy, and this every-other-day schedule isn’t going to help him get there. The pick: Bogdanovic Under 9.5 points
The Bucks took great steps to protect against Trae Young’s floater in Game 2. That meant Brook Lopez playing higher up on ball-screens. It was the right decision, but it also limits Milwaukee’s rim-protection. Of course, the Bucks play such strong help defense that it might not matter, but look for Young to try to attack the Bucks as a passer in Game 3. The pick: Young over 9.5 assists
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