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Yes, yes, I know the 2021 playoffs are still ongoing, but certain books are starting to release 2021-22 futures odds already. Typically, championship and conference odds will start to pop up for the next season around the Finals, and in the days or weeks afterward, depending on how long that Finals series lasts, you’ll start to see more win total and division odds pop up.
So how should you approach them? Just use some common sense. Pre-offseason win totals are often where value can be found (though, in the interest of full disclosure, one of the dumbest bets of my life was a mid-June “under 49.5 wins” pick for the 2019-20 Clippers before they landed Kawhi Leonard and Paul George that I was only bailed out of by COVID-19 hiatus). The value here comes in how predictable NBA offseason can be. You know who is going to have cap space. You know which stars are likely to ask for trades. You can’t chart everything, of course, so even if you’re likelier to get a random win total right in September than June, there is more value before the offseason begins in earnest on teams you expect to do far better or worse than the field.
I haven’t seen any win totals for next season yet, but lines I’m looking out for are the Knicks (they had unsustainable shooting and injury luck), the Raptors (returning to Toronto from Tampa is going to make a big difference) and the Warriors (I suspect they’re trading for veterans this offseason, so I’d love to get in before they do and the line moves). Ultimately though, if you have a strong instinct on where the offseason is going, trust it. For now, though, let’s key in on Tuesday’s best bets.
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Game 4: Milwaukee leads series 2-1
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | TV and live stream: TNT
Latest Odds:
Milwaukee Bucks
-6.5
Trae Young has scored 32.5 percent of Atlanta’s points in this series, and he’s dealing with a bone bruise. Hunter averaged 15 points per game in the regular season and is out for the series. Bogdan Bogdanovic averaged 16.4, but hasn’t reached double figures since injuring his knee in Game 6 of the Philly series. Eventually, there just comes a critical mass of injuries that a team can no longer escape. If the Hawks were healthy, this would be a competitive series. They aren’t, though, so the Bucks are the safe pick. The pick: Bucks -7 (-105)
The same logic that goes into picking the Bucks should also lead you to the under. Who is scoring for Atlanta if Young is too hobbled to do so? For all of the praise Kevin Huerter got for his brilliant Game 7 against the 76ers, remember, that is the only time this postseason he has topped 20 points. For the Hawks to score enough to make the over viable considering all of their injuries, they’d basically need a Lou Williams explosion. That doesn’t seem especially likely, so ride the defenses here. The pick: Under 219 (-110)
Khris Middleton is among the most inconsistent game-to-game All-Stars in basketball right now. He was incredible in Game 3, scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter alone on his way to 38 in total, but he has reached 24 in consecutive games only once this entire postseason and only five times in the regular season. He scored 15 in Games 1 and 2. He’s perfectly capable of having another big game, but that doesn’t mean it’s particularly likely. The pick: Middleton under 23.5 points (-115)
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